Arizona Sucks

I’ve heard it, you’ve heard it, we’ve all heard it several times – ‘it’s the same everywhere else’ – it has slowly but surely become the go-to argument whenever a negative story or comment is shared about how life really is in Arizona. This argument has really increased in popularity out here over the last few years as many have tried to relate Arizona’s problems with that of the nation’s struggling economy. There are some people out here who may actually believe that other states are having the same economic, real estate, crime, and job struggles which we are dealing with in Arizona. Maybe you’ve even wondered if it really is this bad everywhere else in the country?

Not a chance. Do other states share some of the similar problems? Absolutely. Do other states have their own issues to deal with? They sure do. How many other states are stuck with permanent economic and social issues? Not many. Could it be the economy? Elsewhere, yes – in Arizona, not really. Is it just that the future for Arizona and its residents doesn’t sound all that appealing? Probably.

Anyone who really believes that the problems we are experiencing in Arizona are ‘the same as everywhere else’ either has never left the state of Arizona, has been stuck here so long that the heat has left them with no rational thought left, or is just ignorant to what is really going on around them. Look around you – most of these issues found here are not plaguing the rest of the country. Arizona does share some similar struggles with the rest of the nation, but the main difference is the rest of the country will probably recover at some point. Three of Arizona’s major struggles which will continue for the forseeable future include the housing market, job market, and increasing violence. I’ll keep it pleasant and much, much shorter by leaving the weather, schools, residents, drivers, traffic, and lack of things to do out of this one.

Arizona’s Housing Market – finished. I really don’t think there is a simpler way to describe how the real estate market is going to continue playing out here in the coming years. The growth over the last 10 years fueled a real estate boom like something never seen before. Brand new developments went up all over the Phoenix area and each new development managed to get farther and farther away from the center of this mess. The homes continued to go up, but the population growth did not. The homes became larger, more feature packed, and pricier, but the number of unemployed and underemployed in Arizona increased. Arizona now struggles with tons of vacant homes, foreclosures galore, and a population struggling just to make rent. Who is going to buy these houses now? Arizona has always relied on growth to keep the bulk of its economy moving along, but what happens now as the growth continues to go down? More foreclosures and extremely cheap housing for anyone dumb enough to still move out here. Investors will certainly be shopping around for the best bargains, but might be in for quite a surprise when they realize nobody wants their home or they have to accept Pesos just to get someone to rent their home. I’ve said it before, and it needs to be said again – avoid the Arizona housing market all together unless you plan on staying for a very, very long time.

Arizona’s Job Market – almost non-existant with the exception of the retail, call center, and fast food industries. Even the construction jobs have vanished since we have vacant homes, offices, and strip malls for years to come. It will be interesting to see how the restaurant and service industry fare in Arizona since disposable income is just another thing running dry out here in the desert. Arizona’s job market will not rebound like that of the rest of the country because it can’t come back around since there was never really any jobs here in the first place. The so called HOT job market in Arizona was one of the more elaborate schemes coming out of Arizona which was pioneered, abused, and a success story for many Realtors around the state. It was simple, but it worked – create a false job market, persuade people to relocate to Arizona, and then sell them a home. The result was thousands upon thousands of people who made the voyage to Phoenix in the hunt for a piece of this bogus job market. So many people moved out here thinking good jobs were abundant, bought homes, and then could never find work. Want a good job, maybe even a career? You probably want to avoid Arizona, unless you want to push shopping carts around while it is 117 degrees outside.

Arizona’s Escalating Violence/Gang Activity/Drugs – they say crime is going down in Arizona, but picking up a newspaper, watching the news, or just keeping an eye on what is going on around you would tell you otherwise. The crimes out here seem to get crazier and more intense every year. Arizona criminals are desperate and will go after anyone and everyone including kids, the elderly, cops, the homeless, and even your pets. Fanatical crimes happen everywhere in Arizona from the white trash trailer parks to the illegal ridden apartments to the so-called affluent area of North Scottsdale. Drugs are all over the place as well, and what were once normal people will now do anything to get their fix. The schools out here can’t brag about the education your children are getting, but they do offer great exposure to gang activity and hard drugs. The number of gangs is on the rise across Phoenix, and the bulk of it is originating from our friends down South. Drug, human, and weapon smuggling is commonplace in Arizona and something you probably don’t want to get in the middle of. The most alarming part about all the violence and crime in Arizona is that it is only going to get worse as more illegals creep in, more people lose their jobs and houses, and the meth use continues to rise. It is quite the situation out here and it is definitely not the same everywhere else.

Still think Arizona is exactly or close to being like anywhere else? Think again.

Just a few years ago, there were so many in Arizona who didn’t have a complaint in the world except for the hot weather, the abundance of rude people, and a severe lack of anything to do. Homes were selling quicker than they could go up, Arizona Realtors were making unheard of commissions, and others were successfully flipping home after home to out of state investors. The construction industry was moving right along and there were tons of new construction jobs and retail/service jobs in the endless communities which shot up around Phoenix. Just about everywhere you looked in the Phoenix area – if there was flat, open land – there were homes or strip malls being built. Logic tells you this couldn’t go on forever, but it was as if some in Arizona were actually under the impression that everyone across the country would relocate to Arizona at some point in the near future. It is quite comical to watch this suburban sprawl in Arizona especially since everything looks exactly the same except for maybe the color of the street signs.

Community after community went up, with the adjacent strip mall, fast food restaurants, and the corner Chilis restaurant in typical Arizona fashion. As each community was built, each became increasingly farther and farther away from the central hub of downtown Phoenix – which is what I would call just about the center of this mess we call the Phoenix metropolitan area. Fortunately, few people are actually tied to the downtown area and there really isn’t shit to see or do there – maybe with the exception of the Suns and the Diamondbacks when they are having better than average seasons. However, I would wager most of your larger job centers in Arizona are within a 15-20 mile range of downtown Phoenix. What does this mean for people who bought homes in the newer communities built out in Buckeye, Queen Creek, far North Phoenix, east Mesa, Surprise, and Maricopa – long and extremely dangerous commutes if you actually have a job. If you happen to live in one of these communities and work there too, then you have really lucked out, especially by Arizona standards – you have a job, you spend less time on Arizona’s unsafe roadways, and you have access to much cheaper real estate. The question is how will these communities survive? Now that the Arizona home rush is over, less people are moving here, and home prices are back to reality – who is really going to want to live that far out from everything that some say Phoenix has to offer? What is going to happen to those communities where every other house is in foreclosure and houses have been sitting vacant for months? How low are home prices in these areas going to go?

This blog has received a lot of negative attention from many of Arizona’s finest Realtors. Since posting up this blog last week, I have received a number of negative emails and comments from unhappy and pissed off Realtors. It really made me wonder – what are Arizona Realtors doing now that so few people are buying homes?

Back in 2006, the Arizona real estate market was at its peak and life was great. Realtors were making unheard of commissions and every home was selling with NO effort. There was a ton of money to be made for basically doing nothing. The fun had to end sometime – it happened – the real estate bubble burst and the hopes and dreams of many came crashing down. Homes were no longer selling, prices were falling, and many new developments were stopped in some phase of construction. It was all over.

As of today, prices are still falling and this trend is likely to continue. There is a HUGE supply of homes currently on the Arizona market which allows buyers the chance to shop around without fear that a home may sell to someone else. It has also given buyers the opportunity to be aggressive with their price offers. What does all this mean – a smaller commission check when a home actually sells.

Would you like fries with that?